Breaking Khamenei demands Hormuz stay closed, all US bases in region attacked — first public statement from new Supreme Leader          Larijani warns Trump: "quick victory impossible, we will not relent until making you sorry" — Iran security chief          CENTCOM: approximately 6,000 targets struck in Iran, 60+ ships damaged or destroyed — first full-scale disclosure          IDF strikes Basij positions in Tehran; begins new wave of strikes in Beirut — simultaneous multi-front offensive          Oil near $100 — USO ETF nears 7-year high — Goldman raises US inflation forecast; gas $3.60, diesel $5+ in 8 states          Half of global LNG tankers stranded in Persian Gulf — ~20 carriers blocked as Qatar Ras Laffan enters sixth day without export          UK says Iran likely mining Hormuz — conflicting Iran deputy FM claim of no mines          Norway bans all ships from Strait of Hormuz — US war costs $11.3B in first week         

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Today's briefing Thu 12 March 2026

March 12 was defined by a single statement: Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly demanded the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, called for all US military bases in the region to be attacked, warned that new fronts are being studied, and vowed vengeance. Iran's security chief Larijani simultaneously told Trump directly that "quick victory is impossible" and vowed to "not relent until making you sorry." CENTCOM revealed the conflict's full scale: approximately 6,000 targets struck, 60+ ships destroyed. Oil approached $100 a barrel, the USO ETF neared a 7-year high, and Goldman Sachs raised its US inflation forecast. Half the world's LNG tanker charter fleet sat stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Overnight — Beirut, Bahrain, and the mine report: Six people were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut's waterfront in the early hours. Bahrain confirmed Iran targeted fuel tanks at the Muharraq facility. Oman evacuated ships from Mina Al Fahal oil terminal. UAE reported a new Iranian missile and drone wave. Most significantly, the Wall Street Journal reported that US officials say Iran has laid approximately 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz — a report that would gain further credibility throughout the day as the UK Defence Secretary cited mounting evidence.

Morning — economic damage deepens: Goldman Sachs raised its US inflation forecast and cut its 2026 growth outlook, explicitly naming higher oil prices from the Iran conflict as the top economic risk. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Navy is not yet ready for Hormuz tanker escorts, but possible by month-end. US gasoline hit $3.60 per gallon — up 35 cents in a week. Diesel is above $5 in eight states, with California at $6.16. Air France-KLM announced it is raising long-haul ticket prices. Bond markets now price in just 24 basis points of Fed cuts for all of 2026.

Afternoon — Khamenei speaks: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's statement, delivered through Iranian state TV, was the defining moment of the day. He demanded Hormuz stay closed, called for attacks on all US bases in the region, warned new fronts are under study, and vowed vengeance. The IRGC Navy commander posted on X pledging "the most severe blows." Iran fired a new wave of missiles at Israel. About 20 LNG carriers — half the global charter fleet — remained stranded in the Persian Gulf. Stocks fell to session lows. Iran's security chief warned the region could face a blackout if Iran's power grid were destroyed.

Late afternoon — UK: mines confirmed, Norway: Hormuz banned: UK Defence Secretary Healey told Parliament that evidence mounts Iran has started mining Hormuz — contradicting Iran's own deputy foreign minister. Norway's Maritime Authority banned all Norwegian-flagged ships from the Strait. Israel began a new wave of strikes in Beirut, hitting a building less than 1km from Lebanon's government headquarters. Saudi Aramco confirmed it is in talks to buy Ukrainian drones for oilfield protection. The US war with Iran was disclosed to have cost $11.3 billion in its first week — nearly $1.9 billion per day. The USS Gerald Ford reported a non-combat fire, extinguished with no injuries.

Evening — CENTCOM reveals scale, Larijani's message: CENTCOM disclosed approximately 6,000 targets struck in Iran, 60+ ships damaged or destroyed, 30+ minelayers eliminated — the first comprehensive official tally of the campaign's scope. Iran's security chief Larijani told Trump "quick victory is impossible" and that Iran would "not relent." Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed he will meet Chinese VP He Lifeng in France on March 15–16. The IDF disclosed it had struck Basij positions in Tehran. The USO ETF neared a 7-year high as oil approached $100 per barrel. Iran's foreign minister added a contradictory note: ships can pass Hormuz if they coordinate with the Iranian Navy.

In depth

Iran · Leadership · Hormuz

Iran's new Supreme Leader issues first statement — demands Hormuz stay closed, all US bases attacked, new fronts under study

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei made his first major public statement of the conflict on Thursday — delivered through Iranian state TV — demanding the Strait of Hormuz remain closed as a tool of pressure, calling for all US military bases in the region to be attacked, warning that other fronts are being actively studied, and vowing vengeance for those killed at Minab. The IRGC Navy commander separately pledged "the most severe blows" in line with the Supreme Leader's directive.

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Iran · Security · US

Larijani to Trump: quick victory impossible — "we will not relent until making you sorry"

Iran's security chief told Trump directly that a swift US victory is not achievable, warning Washington it made a "grave miscalculation." He separately told the WSJ the war will not end soon.

3 min read ·

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US · Defense · Iran

CENTCOM reveals full scale: ~6,000 targets struck in Iran, 60+ ships damaged or destroyed

The first comprehensive official tally of the campaign: approximately 6,000 targets struck inside Iran, 60+ ships damaged or destroyed, 30+ minelayers eliminated — two weeks into the conflict.

3 min read ·

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Energy · Markets · US

USO ETF nears 7-year high as oil approaches $100 — Goldman raises inflation, gas $3.60, diesel $5+ in 8 states

US Oil Fund set to hit its highest since 2018, up 40%+ this month. Goldman Sachs raised its inflation forecast. Gas at $3.60/gallon, diesel above $5 in 8 states, California at $6.16. Bond markets now price just 24bp of Fed cuts for 2026.

4 min read ·

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UK · Hormuz · Defense

UK says evidence mounts Iran may have started mining Hormuz — contradicting Iran's own deputy FM

UK Defence Secretary Healey told Parliament that UK intelligence suggests Iran has likely started mining the Strait — directly contradicting Iran's deputy FM who said no mines are being laid. Mine clearance nearly impossible during active conflict.

3 min read ·

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Energy · Shipping · Gulf

Half of global LNG tankers stranded in Persian Gulf — ~20 carriers blocked, Qatar 6 days without export

About 20 LNG carriers — roughly half the global charter fleet — are trapped in the Persian Gulf unable to exit through Hormuz. Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal enters its sixth straight day without an export — the longest halt since 2008.

3 min read ·

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Israel · Lebanon · Iran

IDF strikes Basij positions in Tehran and begins new wave in Beirut — Lebanon ground op considered

Israeli forces struck Basij roadblocks established in Tehran while simultaneously launching strikes in central Beirut, hitting a building less than 1km from Lebanon's government HQ. Defence Minister considers major ground operation in Lebanon.

3 min read ·

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Latest news

Energy · Markets · US

USO ETF nears 7-year high as oil approaches $100 — up 40%+ this month

The US Oil Fund is set to hit its highest price since 2018. Brent crude approaches $100/bbl. Goldman raises inflation forecast. 48% of Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices per Morning Consult poll.

Israel · Lebanon · Iran

IDF strikes Basij positions in Tehran and launches new wave in central Beirut

Israeli forces struck Basij roadblocks and soldiers established in Tehran. Simultaneously, IDF strikes hit a central Beirut building less than 1km from Lebanon's government headquarters. Israel considers Lebanon ground operation.

Energy · US · IEA

SPR and IEA releases could take weeks to reach Asia — Hormuz routing adds weeks to delivery

Emergency oil from the SPR and IEA stockpiles could take weeks to reach Asian markets due to alternative shipping routes around Hormuz. Some releases may not arrive until mid-May. Maximum release rates also limit delivery speed.

Iran · Security · US

Larijani tells Trump: "we will not relent until making you sorry" — war won't end soon

Iran's top security official addressed Trump by name on X, warning of a "grave miscalculation." He separately told the WSJ a quick US victory is impossible and the war will not end soon — directly countering US expectations.

US · China · Diplomacy

Bessent to meet Chinese VP He Lifeng in France — March 15–16, highest-level US-China contact since war began

Treasury Secretary Bessent will travel to France to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on March 15–16 — the highest-level US-China economic contact since the conflict began, amid simultaneous Section 301 probes into China.

US · Defense · Iran

CENTCOM: ~6,000 targets struck in Iran, 60+ ships damaged, 30+ minelayers eliminated

US Central Command's first comprehensive tally of the campaign's scope, disclosed Thursday — two weeks into the conflict. The figures significantly exceed any prior partial disclosures.

UK · Hormuz · Defense

UK Defence Secretary: evidence mounts Iran may have started mining Hormuz

UK intelligence suggests Iran has likely begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz — contradicting Iran's deputy FM who denied it. Mine clearance during active conflict is described as "nearly impossible."

Europe · Shipping · Defense

Norway bans all Norwegian-flagged ships from Hormuz — citing escalating security risks

Norway's Maritime Authority announced all Norwegian-flagged ships are prohibited from entering the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Norway is one of the world's largest flag state nations for tankers and LNG carriers.

US · Defense · Finance

US-Iran war has cost $11.3 billion in the first week — nearly $1.9 billion per day

Pentagon sources disclosed the first-week cost of the Iran conflict at $11.3B — not including ongoing naval ops and personnel. Congress has not yet voted on supplemental war funding or authorization.

US · Defense · Navy

USS Gerald R. Ford reports non-combat fire in laundry spaces — extinguished, crew safe

US Naval Forces Central Command confirmed the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford experienced a fire in its main laundry spaces — not combat-related and extinguished. The carrier remains operational in the Middle East theater.

Markets · US · Finance

S&P 500, Nasdaq extend fall to session lows — both down 1% as Iran war weighs

US equities hit session lows Thursday as Iran war tensions, rising oil and reduced Fed cut expectations weighed. Cooperman warned markets are overpriced. Bond markets now price just 24bp of Fed cuts for all of 2026.

Energy · Shipping · Gulf

Half of global LNG tankers stranded in Persian Gulf — ~20 carriers blocked with no way out

About 20 LNG carriers — half the global charter fleet — are trapped in the Persian Gulf unable to pass through Hormuz. Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal enters sixth day of zero exports, longest halt since 2008.

Iran · Leadership · Hormuz

Khamenei: Hormuz closed, all US bases to be attacked, other fronts under study — first public statement

Iran's new Supreme Leader issued his first major statement through state TV — demanding Hormuz stay closed, calling for US base attacks, warning new fronts are being studied, vowing vengeance for those killed at Minab.

Iran · Israel · Defense

Iran announces new wave of missile launches against Israel on Thursday afternoon

Iranian state media reported a new wave of missile launches targeting Israel — the daily campaign continues despite significant losses to Iran's military infrastructure from US-Israeli strikes.

Markets · US · Energy

Goldman Sachs raises US inflation forecast, cuts 2026 growth — oil shock top economic risk

Goldman raised its US inflation forecast and cut 2026 growth, expecting Brent to average $98 in March–April. Citi also raised oil forecasts. Fed rate cut pricing collapsed to 24bp for all of 2026.

US · Defense · Energy

Energy Secretary Wright: Navy not ready to escort tankers in Hormuz — possible by end of March

US Energy Secretary said the Navy is not yet ready for Hormuz tanker escorts, with assets focused on degrading Iran's capabilities. Escorts could begin by end of March. US holds 415 million barrels in the SPR.

Lebanon · Israel · Defense

Six killed in Israeli strike on Beirut waterfront overnight — Israel considers Lebanon ground operation

Six people were killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut's waterfront in the early hours of Thursday. Israel later struck central Beirut and Basij positions in Tehran. Defence Minister Katz is considering a major Lebanon ground offensive.

Bahrain · Iran · Defense

Bahrain: Iran targeted fuel tanks at Muharraq facility overnight

Bahrain confirmed Iran targeted fuel tanks at the Muharraq facility overnight — the latest in a series of Iranian attacks on Bahraini infrastructure. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.

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