Tuesday March 17 was dominated by Israel’s most devastating decapitation campaign of the war — killing Ali Larijani, Basij commander Soleimani, and reportedly the Bagheri brothers in a single overnight wave. Iran’s Supreme Leader responded by rejecting peace proposals from two intermediary countries, declaring the US and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation. Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghanistan escalated catastrophically when a strike on a Kabul hospital killed 400. Oil rose 5% with US diesel topping $5/gallon. The EU’s Kallas proposed a Black Sea model for Hormuz, and UK PM Starmer said Britain won’t be “dragged” into the war.
Overnight — Gulf under fire, Ford extinguished: Iran’s FM declared Tehran won’t ask for a ceasefire. Explosions hit Bahrain and the UAE. The USS Ford fire was extinguished after 30 hours, displacing 600 sailors. The UAE closed all airspace. Blasts struck near Saadabad Palace in Tehran. Bitcoin passed $75,000.
Early hours — wide-scale strikes, cluster munitions: Israel launched simultaneous wide-scale strikes on Tehran and Beirut. A drone attack caused a fire at Fujairah Oil Industries. Saudi Arabia intercepted 33 Iranian drones. An Iranian missile dispersed cluster munitions over Israel — a significant escalation in warhead technology.
Dawn — Pakistan escalation, Iraq attacks: The RBA raised rates 25bps citing war-driven inflation. Rockets targeted a US facility near Baghdad airport. Qatar urged residents to stay indoors after explosions. Pakistan launched airstrikes across Afghanistan. Suicide bombings in Maiduguri, Nigeria killed 23.
Morning — energy crisis deepens, Iran threats: Oil rose 5%. An Iranian drone destroyed a US-made radar at a Saudi airport. Iran threatened the UK with military action over Hormuz. Qatar intercepted 13 of 14 Iranian missiles. Gulf states urged the US not to stop short of eliminating Iran’s threat.
Midday — decapitation campaign, EU response: Israel confirmed killing Larijani and Basij commander Soleimani; reports said the Bagheri brothers were killed. Netanyahu ordered and publicized the operations. The EU’s Kallas said the bloc wasn’t consulted and proposed a Black Sea model for Hormuz. A UN report called an Israeli prison strike a war crime. Iran earns $140M/day from oil exports.
Afternoon — peace rejected, UK refuses war, Kabul hospital: Iran’s Supreme Leader rejected peace proposals, demanding US-Israeli defeat and compensation. Starmer said Britain won’t be “dragged” in. A Pakistani airstrike killed 400 at a Kabul hospital. US diesel passed $5/gallon. CENTCOM disclosed 200 troops injured since the war began. S&P warned of $307B in GCC deposit outflows.
Evening — new missiles, diplomacy frozen, internal dissent: Iran fired a new missile wave at Israel with sirens across Tel Aviv. Tehran rejected all negotiation offers, signaling commitment to extended war. Macron said France would not participate in Hormuz operations during hostilities. Trump claimed strong Gulf support for a Hormuz coalition and called NATO’s stance “foolish.” Turkey’s FM announced a Middle East peace tour starting Wednesday. Joe Kent resigned as counterterrorism chief over opposition to the war. SAS cut flights due to fuel shock. Argentina withdrew from the WHO under Milei.